The aviation industry has faced many challenges this last year in the form of the continuing travel limitations of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukraine war. Add to that energy and fuel shortages, inflation, and rising conflicts in various hot spots, and the outlook might seem bleak for aviation in 2023. While the commercial flier comeback and travel boom are well-documented, what about military aviation? Will 2023-2024 be Boom or Bust? Read below to understand that military aviation is doing better than many would expect.
The global military aviation market is rising by billions of dollars each year, which has in part been driven by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Now it’s becoming clear that more and more transport, fighter, and unmanned aircraft from countries all over the world will be involved in this prolonged war.
The military has always been at the forefront of aviation technology, and now the industry is pioneering more automated and sustainable ways to fly, and perhaps also getting ready to unveil some more advanced digital technologies to make aviation processes more efficient.
Let’s take a look at military aviation in 2022 and where that leaves us as we head into 2023.
The Challenges of 2022
A lot of the problems that hit the commercial aviation industry hard in 2022 caused issues for military aviation as well. One of the most pervasive issues has been short staffing. As of April 2022, the U.S. Air Force was short by roughly 1650 pilots. There just aren’t enough pilots to keep all the planes in the air. Still, that number is actually an improvement compared to 2021 and 2020.
The Air Force is trying to turn around staffing issues by bringing back retired pilots, offering bonuses of up to $35,000 per year, and stepping up recruiting. Unfortunately, it could still take at least two decades to bring staffing levels up to what they should be, and that’s assuming there’s not another global pandemic or devastating recession. But these numbers don’t even count the rise in military aviation among second- and third-world countries: despite economic challenges, these countries are fueling a huge demand in military aircraft from first-world producing countries.
Of course, 2022 also brought major supply chain issues, thanks to the combined effects of the pandemic staff reductions, inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine war, and these issues have had significant effects on aircraft manufacturing, including for the military. For example, Russia was one of the largest suppliers of aluminum for several aircraft manufacturers. With the limitations on trade, this supply has largely been cut off.
Add to that, trying to get other supplies from point A to point B has suddenly become much harder because of various European ports being restricted due to the war. New air routes created to accommodate those restrictions are longer, requiring more fuel and causing delays, and consequently increasing costs for international shipping.
Then there’s the energy disruptions that continue to this day. Russia’s oil reserves and other fuel sources are no longer available to the West, raising fuel prices considerably. This has made the development of less conventional fuel options crucial to cutting costs.
Also, the aviation industry’s high energy use has not escaped the attention of the sustainability movement. Air travel makes up around four percent of the various factors causing global warming. Reducing that number has become a priority for both civil and military aviation authorities. While driving an average passenger car from Los Angeles to New York is twice as polluting as flying as a passenger on a typical aircraft, aviation is much more visible than driving so bears the brunt of public opinion.
Overcoming the Challenges in 2023
The year 2023 begins with a lot of those same problems in place. So, what could change for military aviation going into the next year? And will the changes be for the better or for the worse? What are the major trends that might dominate 2023?
One of the factors that could help overcome understaffing in the aviation industry is autonomous flights for cargo transports. While automated flights for passenger aircraft are still a few years away, unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) have already seen some use in the U.S. Air Force.
In 2021, a company called Silent Arrow contracted with the military to provide cargo-delivery UAVs. These vehicles, essentially large drones, would have a carrying capacity of 350 pounds. Another company, Near Earth, similarly is supplying autonomous aircraft to the U.S. Army for cargo delivery. Throughout 2022, the U.S. Air Force also explored the use of autonomous co-pilots in lieu of hiring more pilots for cargo planes. The tests met with some success. Just a month ago, the military conducted cargo delivery to a navy ship at sea with a UAV for the first time. It seems clear that the use of UAVs will continue to increase, both in the military and civil sectors of aviation.
Many people have reservations about the use of A.I. in military aircraft, particularly regarding the potential security issues, but rigorous testing and quality control standards like DO-178C can ensure a high level of safety. The technology is already here, and now it only remains for widespread use to become the norm.
Electric aircraft will also become much more widespread in 2023. We’ve already seen plenty of evidence of this with the partnerships between electric aviation pioneers and the U.S. Air Force over the last couple of years. For example, Joby Aviation has had a contract with the U.S. Department of Defense for testing electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) for the last five years.
Also, as of October of last year, the U.S. Air Force made a new climate action plan public, with the goal of getting air bases to zero emissions by 2046. After all, the Air Force is responsible for the largest portion of the Defense Department’s carbon footprint. The U.S. Air Force has also experienced some of the worst effects of climate change in the form of bad weather, which has disrupted operations and brought high costs to the DoD. A major part of the emissions reduction plan involves seeking out more sustainable energy sources.
Electric aircraft could make military aviation better able to face future crises with less reliance on the fuels that are in limited supply. Those benefits have made eVTOLs attractive enough that, in February of last year, the U.S. Army contracted with Beta Technologies for flight testing support for a new eVTOL design. These eVTOL simulations focused on cargo and logistics mission assistance.
Of course, the road to eVTOL adoption isn’t exactly smooth and still has a lot of development ahead. Manufacturers have yet to fully address energy efficiency in eVTOLs, and operating on battery power severely limits the range of electric aircraft. Also, even if the technology were 100% ready for takeoff, regulatory guidance and oversight are still far behind. Although the EASA in Europe already has a regulatory framework in place that could lay the groundwork for something similar in the United States, there are still safety and security challenges for eVTOLs that need to be addressed.
Advancements to Come
In 2023, there will need to be major advancements in three main areas for eVTOL use to become widespread: battery technology, pilot training, and regulatory compliance.
Despite their widespread use, lithium-ion batteries still have the potential to catch fire or explode. Plus, if the electric systems that rely on these batteries fail, the result could be a devastating crash. A typical eVTOL doesn’t have a way to glide to safety, since they generally operate in the form of relatively small, helicopter-like aircraft. So, redundancies and robust safety checks will be all the more necessary for eVTOLs.
As for pilot training, current regimes aren’t necessarily suitable for eVTOL pilots. The U.S. Air Force is already working to evaluate current pilot training requirements with a focus on getting more pilots ready to fly eVTOLs. This will become even more of a priority throughout 2023.
Finally, while many eVTOL manufacturers are already actively seeking type certifications from the FAA, these will not be enough to facilitate deploying an entire fleet of electric aircraft. The U.S. needs a comprehensive regulatory standard that can cover the unique requirements of battery-powered, rotary-dependent aircraft. Most recently, the G-35 committee formed to discuss just that, and the process is underway to develop such a standard.
With these exciting developments in automation and eVTOL technology, 2023 is off to a great start for military aviation. Despite the challenges, the industry seems headed for a boom.
Questions & Answers for Tomorrow’s Aviation Developers with Vance Hilderman, CEO and founder, AFuzion
It wasn’t difficult catching up with aviation’s Vance Hilderman, because he’s easy to find working in 30 different countries each year. And he cannot run a two-hour marathon, thus he was easy to catch. We wanted to see if Hilderman had any future aviation vision insights for us, particularly since he’s been in our industry for exactly 40 years now. And the timing was fitting: this new year is “2020” and for pilots like Vance Hilderman, “20-20” also symbolizes perfect vision..
As you may know, Hilderman is the entrepreneurial founder of numerous aviation and safety-critical services/product companies, a prolific author of many articles, papers and books on aviation development, and a forthright outspoken individual. His independent and self-confident streak likely comes from his Montana upbringing where deer outnumber people by ten-to-one and aviation is a vital transportation mechanism, not merely a hobby. His great uncle built one of Montana’s first airplanes and flew without lessons, but crashed it on its third flight (he survived). The photo of that crash encouraged Vance to doggedly pursue higher education and he has three college degrees including two Master’s (Howard Hughes Fellow at USC).
We asked Hilderman before a morning jog if he had any running-based wisdom for aviation engineers. Interestingly, Vance said, “Yes, aviation actually resembles running: success requires skill, practice, coaching, technology and some pain. Just recently the world marathon record was broken by an incredibly hard-working and smart athlete who beat the ‘impossible’ two-hour barrier. But he used a real-time support team and was wearing Nike’s futuristic running shoes designed to break records: an average 4% speed improvement over competitor‘s shoes. So running is like aviation, each year we try to design aircraft which are 4% ‘More’ than last year; more economical, quicker to market and more safe. We succeed with technology. Companies like AFuzion are in business solely to help aviation companies worldwide achieve ‘More’. So winning in running is remarkably similar to aviation,” Hilderman says.
Almost certainly everyone reading this has had math or engineering classes which were taught by smart people but you learned little. The same was true for Vance Hilderman – he states with certainty that, “Every professor I ever had was smarter than me. But most could not communicate their expertise in an optimal way so the learning was less effective. We engineers are simply not known for great communication skills. Fortunately I value mentors, both giving and receiving, and I was blessed with a fabulous mentor 35 years ago; she told me to pursue Toastmasters and improve my public speaking ability. After five years of weekly Toastmaster speaking practice sessions I’m still not a great speaker like some of our recent Presidents. But I’m far better than I was, and our aviation profession is more honest, so it’s a win-win. Today, I’ve taught 21,500 avionics engineers various courses in DO-178C, ARP4754A, DO-254, etc. – at least they don’t fall asleep in my classes!”
We asked Hilderman why he originally entered the aviation field. He actually wanted to be a fighter pilot and passed all the aptitude and skills tests, but washed out on the vision test. “You need that 20-20 vision for landing on aircraft carriers, and obviously depth perception is vital; mine was lacking. So I instead took degrees in electrical engineering and computer engineering to enter aerospace. In the early days, I worked for Hughes Aircraft where we designed systems for missiles to intercept aircraft. Then I switched to the civil world where the same mathematics was used to prevent collisions.”
Hilderman pursued his Private Pilot certificate for the simple reason of better understanding aviation. “Today we have many engineers worldwide designing avionics systems. To be honest, I don’t think an automotive engineer could design great cars without ever having driven one. Aviation is even more complex,” he says. “Most of the good avionics engineers I’ve met are pilots. At AFuzion, almost half the engineers are pilots also.”
Fun Five with Vance Hilderman
1. You’ve written a book and you have another coming out soon. Tell us about the new book and when it will be available:
The next one coming out is called “The Avionics Development Ecosystrem – Applying DO-178C & Related Guidelines.” It’s a one stop resource to help people navigate the tens of thousands of pages of literature and regulations out there. It provides a real cogent, codified, understandable resource that readers can finally achieve that “aha” moment for aviation and avionics development. The expected publication date is March 1, 2020.
2. What do you think the next big thing in the aviation and aerospace industry will be?
Urban air mobility (UAM) with battery powered aircraft for pollution reasons. Also vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL), not just for Amazon deliveries – that’s not that compelling to me. What is compelling to me is the horrible Los Angeles traffic. It’s only getting worse in urban area. I think eVTOL is going to happen so that people to have more mobility without driving.
3. You work with very technical people so when you’re hiring someone, what qualities or characteristics do you look for in that person beyond the technical?
Number one is their commitment to their families and their community. We want people as service providers who can relate to other people. We want individuals who have a healthy family life, a healthy community involvement. Those are typically great people to hire. It sets a boundary for integrity, for involvement, for people who are fun and probably also great communicators. So those are all real key things we look for. By the time they get to me in the food chain for interviewing, they’ve got fantastic technical credentials and they’re probably smarter than me. So I always hire people with that integrity, family commitment and community involvement.
4. You’ve traveled all over the world. What is one of your favorite destinations and why?
Oh, one of my favorite places is Turkey! I think it’s a beautiful country with great people, amazing food and scenery. It’s considered so far away because it’s an extra two hours flying further [beyond Europe]. It’s worth that extra two hours to go visit Turkey.
5. You offer mentoring services. Why is that so important to you and what advice would you give someone just starting out in the aerospace business?
Well, I would tell them to join Toastmasters and to be better communicators. Don’t wait 10 years like I did. I tell them to find a business mentor, somebody who can help them negotiate, especially if they’re starting off in aerospace. As technical people, we have gaps in our social skills, communication skills. It can be really helpful. The mentoring thing – think of sailing a sailboat. We’re not important compared to the rudder and the sail. But we have to provide occasional inputs to the sail and the rudder. Those occasional inputs, I call it a difference in the direction of spirit. Our lives need to be steered in the same way. So a small course correction can go a long way. Mentors are really great at providing healthy course corrections to optimize our sailing path.
We asked Hilderman what interesting projects he’s pursuing today, or at least what details he could share without violating any confidentiality agreements. “AFuzion is small with only 38 engineers and just 10-12 clients at a time. We turn down about 40% of the business as it’s not germane or we’re too busy. But right now we have seven engineers designing NASA’s new manned satellites, several engineers designing tomorrow’s eVTOL aircraft/systems, engineers bringing real-time determinacy to Multi-Core CAST-32A processing, two new software development process optimizations via Agile, a new rotorcraft sensing system, a couple of advanced military missile systems, the EGNOS satellite system, new FPGA certification techniques and we’re leading the way in aviation cyber-security via DO-326A. And four or five more projects that I’d love to describe but our company lawyer is already busy. Suffice it to say, aviation’s wow-factor is accelerating. Aerospace is anything but dull. While our folks love teaching classes at all the major aviation tech conferences, the real reason we love going is to see the amazing rapidity with which innovation is occurring within aviation.”
Everyone knows aviation is a team effort and while the spotlight is often on luminaries and leaders, real-world companies succeed via team leadership. We asked Hilderman how he leads AFuzion. “We engineers are known for our passion and we think we’re intelligent. But unbeknownst to us most non-engineers think we’re lousy leaders and they’re often right. In my early engineering internships I realized that I wasn’t a great leader, even though I was an Eagle Scout who lead a couple dozen boys and was the head French fry cook at a fast-food joint. I think getting an MBA really helped me personally. Also finding or paying a mentor to help learn leadership is highly advisable. I certainly had leadership failures in my past. Today, AFuzion only hires people smarter than me; why would we need someone less capable than the boss? We ensure they’re in the top 10% of their peer group, honest, well-liked and self-starters. Then we turn them loose and help them succeed with our clients. So far we have a 100% client success rate, where those clients all say they would, or did, hire us back. So I guess we haven’t failed there.”
Speaking of failures, aviation has successes and failures so we asked Hilderman what his greatest failures were. He candidly replied “Oh, I’ve had many failures. But they turned out to be the greatest success enablers. One advantage some cultures have is acceptance of failure as a learning tool. The western USA is one such demographic. Indeed, I’ve started seven companies, three of which were very prominent in aviation. But three of them are almost unknown Why? Because they failed, bankrupt, I lost all my money and time. But I promise you I learned 10 times more from my failures than from my successes. Folks should not be afraid of failing…instead they should be afraid of not trying. I’m getting older and likely will only be working in aviation another 30-40 years. Then I’ll make cappuccino’s and pour wine at the old folks’ home. I’m sure I’ll continue to have failures. My first wife could probably share a few more!”
Speaking of wine, we’ve heard unsubstantiated stories that Hilderman is fond of nice wine and has a rather unusual cellar. So we asked him about that. “Oh yes, thank god wine was found to have some health benefits, so I’m sure to take care of my health at least 3-4 times per week. But please don’t ask me which form of exercise is most healthy: running, cycling, surfing, yoga, hiking or decanting. I might use a reverse order from that.” But what about his cellar and its alleged affiliation with aviation. “Well, aviation is intense. It’s both my hobby and my life, my passion and my relaxation.
So my wine cellar is a recreated DC-8 fuselage, complete with fully functioning bathroom, shower and separate 1,000 bottle refrigerated wine cellar in one of my homes. It’s recreated to be old and the wine bottles inside are 10-40 years young. Since we have six children who are also connoisseurs, there’s a video camera system, with dual redundancy. I tell them the video is for my viewing pleasure when I’m traveling on business. But like avionics systems we design, many have dual-purposes.”
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